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伍迪 陆征 | PPP项目资产证券化评估框架模型研究
发布日期:2020-07-31 作者:伍迪 陆征 信息来源:中咨研究 访问次数: 字号:[ 17js.com ]

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导 读

 2017年4月,上海证券交易所举行了中国首批PPP项目资产支持证券的挂牌仪式,标志着国家发展改革委、中国证监会联合推进的传统基础设施领域PPP项目资产证券化(ABS)产品正式落地。

受国家发展改革委委托,中国国际工程咨询有限公司(中咨公司)研究中心承担了我国首批PPP资产证券化项目的评估以及相关专题的研究工作,其中“政府和社会资本合作项目资产证券化研究”专题成果获2018年度国家发展改革委优秀研究成果三等奖。本文基于关键成功因素(CSF)分析,搭建关于PPP资产证券化融资的可行性评价模型,并在首批PPP资产证券化项目评估实践中应用验证,是该专题研究的系列成果之一。由哥伦比亚大学、清华大学、中咨公司等机构专家合作撰写完成的相关学术论文Assessment Framework for Financing Public-Private Partnership Infrastructure Projects through Asset-Backed Securitization于2019年11月刊载于工程管理领域国际顶级学术期刊《Journal of Management in Engineering》(SCI检索)第35卷第6期,本文基于原论文由伍迪、陆征翻译整理,有删减与修改。近期,恰逢国家发展改革委、中国证监会正在推动基础设施REITs试点相关工作,基础设施REITs即以权益型ABS产品穿透取得底层资产的公募基金,希望本文研究内容对相关从业人员及相关政策制订提供一定参考与借鉴。

 摘要:关键成功因素(Critical Success Factors,CSF)分析是PPP领域研究与实践的一个重要分支,其重要意义在于可以为PPP从业者提供更为量化且易于操作的总体评价指标体系。PPP资产证券化能否取得预期效果受多方面因素的影响,为了探索如何成功地通过PPP资产证券化利用资本市场进行融资,有必要对其关键成功因素进行深入研究。本文首先综合使用文献调研、案例分析、专家访谈等方法,系统识别PPP资产证券化的关键成功因素清单,在此基础上对相关领域专家展开广泛的问卷调研;然后采用主成分分析法(Principal Component Analysis,PCA)处理调研数据,分析识别主成分与各因素之间的关系,从问卷数据中挖掘出市场认可的、对融资成功与否产生重要影响的几个关键维度;最后基于以上结论搭建关于PPP资产证券化融资的可行性评价模型。

关键词:政府与社会资本合作(PPP);资产证券化(ABS);关键成功因素(CSF);基础设施融资;主成分分析(PCA)

1. PPP资产证券化关键成功因素的识别

1.1 基于文献调研识别关键成功因素

在世界范围内PPP与资产证券化的结合仍属新生事物,2016年底中国发布专项政策推广相关工作,国际上针对这一融资创新的理论研究十分有限。因此,本文对PPP关键成功因素、基础设施融资、资产证券化等相关领域分别进行文献调研,从中筛选并形成适合作为PPP资产证券化关键成功因素的初步清单,如表1所示。

表1  基于文献调研识别的关键成功因素

经计算,一致性分析结果显示本次现实结果与模型决策之间的一致性比例为75%,即可行性评估模型的推荐意见与现实的重合程度高达75%,这意味着本文建立的可行性评估模型具有较高的实用性和实践价值。

5. 主要结论与研究展望

本文通过文献调研、案例分析、专家访谈等方法识别并整理出PPP资产证券化的25项关键成功因素,并通过面向更大范围专家的问卷调研,分析各因素的重要程度,通过主成分分析,总结出五个维度的PPP资产证券化的关键成功因素,分别为“有效的资产证券化发行及存续期管理”、“明晰的监管指导”、“严谨的PPP和特许经营设计”、“高效的资本市场”和“可靠且高质量的基础资产”,在此基础上建立了PPP资产证券化融资可行性评价模型,并将模型应用于中国首批PPP资产证券化项目的实践中,取得了较为理想的验证结果。

影响PPP资产证券化融资能否取得成功的因素有很多,这些因素之间又往往相互影响,本文通过将这些因素归纳为5个维度实现了这些因素相关性的梳理,并以此建立可行性评价模型为相关人员提供了一个初步判断的工具。但实践中这5个维度之间也可能相互影响并存在关联性,为进一步探讨这5个维度之间的路径关系以及这些关系如何影响PPP资产证券化融资的总体可行性,研究团队将采用结构方程模型(Structural Equation Modeling)等方法进一步深入研究并不断优化模型,希望能够为从业人员及相关政策制订提供借鉴。

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